tallbloke post backup

This is of course very interesting and these warming reports are significant. Just take a look at the temperature record:


However look beyond 1940s and you will see another 0.5 degC ADDED to the temperatures in 1940s.

So should we not now be saying exactly the same warming messages – retreating glaciers shrinking arctic etc. – only this time it really is worse (by another 0.5C).

We may now be in a pause (just as from 1940 to 1980) but at the end what stops the temperature increasing by another 0.5C.

Remember it is not just the 0.5C that matters (after all its ONLY 0.5C and a bit warmer would be good) it is the added stored energy in the earth system that will be the problem.

You suggest it is just cyclical (and I agree that the predominant cause is a 60 year cycle – peaked in 1880s, 1940, then in 2000) but the problem is the underlying trend which is upwards

I have shown these plots before – one totally cycle based (60 and 315 years main cycles) one based on cycles plus a polynomial trend. as of this year the trend is the best fit – the cycle based plot is falling too rapidly – and rising in the 1800s when it should not).


Obviously it is impossible to predict the futureĀ  but CO2 is a GHG and GHGs increase the earths temperature. Warmer planet = more water vapour and (water vapour is a GHG) so science says the world is warming.

Another 16 years will tell but will it then be too late to react?


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